文章来源: 方兴东/中国博客 于 2005-06-25
中国高科技热度持续升温，大牌VC的大腕们开始频繁飞降中国。对于全球高科技的圣地——硅谷而言，中国势不可挡的趋势，令他们心潮澎湃，滋味万般。这个时候，就如同90年代中后期的互联网热潮一样，人们的态度和观点如同打翻了五味瓶。对于中国的认识处于一种非理性阶段。他们对中国热又爱又狠，又怕又妒。一些人强烈认为中国高科技崛起是“中国威胁论”的重要组成部分，一些人认为中国高科技崛起完全是一时泡沫。还有一些人对于中国的高科技公司和企业家依然有着深深的偏见和不屑。当然，更多务实的人已经开始认真部属中国的投资策略。
托尼•帕金斯（Tony Perkins），是AlwaysOn网站总设计师和主编（Creator and Editor In Chief），一直是我偶像级的硅谷人物。2004年5月在伯克利参加会议期间，我还专门拜访了他一次。大家在酒吧谈兴不错。今天看到他在 AlwaysOn写的长篇文章，历数中国高科技发展的“七重罪”，其实没有什么新意，无外乎各种负面批评的综合集成，比如包括政治因素、知识产权问题、环境污染等，抑中国而扬印度。读完了不但没有特别的感触，而只感觉到作者深深的偏见和成见。不知道托尼•帕金斯是否来过中国，但是从文章看，他对中国的确是太不了解了。显得十分外行。
帕金斯不是以股市预言家著称，他真正擅长的还是高科技媒体。他是这方面当之无愧的先知先觉者。1988年，他创办了《Upside》，这是第一本完全从商业角度去反映高科技产业的杂志，超越了传统的IT专业媒体，开辟一条全新的IT媒体之路，很快成为硅谷最有影响力的科技杂志。几年后，由于思路分歧，帕金斯离开了《Upside》，另外创办了一个新的杂志，但是帕金斯绝对不会办一个类似《Upside》的杂志与其竞争。
帕金斯再次走在趋势之前，超越商业，而立足高科技风险投资和资本市场，这就是《红鲱鱼》。1993年，这本杂志一出手也是震动业界。整个90年代后期，人们都如此比喻：如果说《Upside》是科技领域的《福布斯》，那么《红鲱鱼》就是科技界的《Barron》（财经权威杂志），是科技企业家和投资者的两本必读之刊。。这两本杂志开拓出两条全新道路，引来全球各地无数的模仿者，包括后来火爆一时的新经济媒体，都没有超越这两本杂志的框架之外。
多少年高科技媒体的生涯，以及技术和投资评论的浸润，托尼•帕金斯的业界人脉关系自然无与伦比。无论是乔布斯、钱伯斯等硅谷的大腕，还是盖茨、戴尔等硅谷之外的美国高科技精英，包括Sony、三星等公司的CEO，都是他的老朋友。
但是，今天看到托尼•帕金斯的新文章，我的这个偶像好像一下子矮了很多。在中国趋势面前，任何个人偏见只能凸现自己的狭隘，而不可能影响趋势本身。
“廉颇老矣”，这是读完“七重罪”文章后的真切感受。
七重罪——Are You Ready for the Chinese Revolt?
While technology execs and venture investors from all over the globe rush into the arms of the mighty Chinese dragon, AlwaysOn reflects on seven sins that just might start a revolution.
On a recent trip to Tokyo, we met an investor of Indian heritage, who grew up in Hong Kong, was educated in the US and England, and now travels the world doing business deals. He explained that he was advising his family to move their manufacturing and assembly plants from China to India. Why? Because he thought the political risks associated with operating in China were too high. In other words, he feared a peasant revolt.
This is, of course, merely the opinion of a single businessman, but his story led us to reflect on what’s really behind the Bamboo Curtain. The Chinese peasant population is undergoing great change. The current move of millions of Chinese peasants to the cities, to work there for 50 cents an hour, represents the greatest migration in human history.
Right now, Silicon Valley is running hard at China. VCs insist that their portfolio companies have China strategies, and all the big tech brands are “out-tasking” to China. People are so pumped up about finding a way to cash in on the China boom that there has been talk of a “China bubble” for some months now.
Behind this mania, a growing stream of cash and resources is pumping into China. The United States now manufactures and develops software in China, and buys tons of Chinese goods, resulting in a $162 billion trade deficit with the mighty dragon. (As this issue was going to print, US Treasury Secretary John Snow indicated that the Bush administration would give China six months to make its currency “more flexible,” to help rebalance trade, or it would name China a “manipulative trading partner” in its report to congress.) The Chinese government is also the second-largest owner (after Japan) of US debt, with a portfolio of almost $200 billion in T-bills. A change in their appetite for US Treasury bonds could send interest rates soaring.
For those wondering if and when China could economically cruise past the United States, let’s look at some numbers. By 2050, China is projected to have about 1.5 billion people, about four times the 400 million inhabitants then projected in the United States. According to professor Jeremy Siegel of the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, for China to achieve half of the per capita income of the United States by the middle of the century (something that Portugal and South Korea have already attained), the Chinese economy would have to be almost twice as big as the US economy. To realize this growth rate, China would on average have to grow 3% more per year than the United States. Over the last 25 years, China has grown at almost double that rate. So for the Chinese Super Boomers interviewed for the youth survey [see page 34 of the magazine], their dream of helping China become a major economic powerhouse in the world is very possible, and even highly likely.
Proceed with caution
The bottom line is that (like most developed nations) the United States is increasingly dependent on China. With its booming economy and a complete collection of nuclear arms, China may soon be the second great superpower. So it’s smart to take our Indian friend’s advice and ponder China’s political risks. AlwaysOn’s bias is for free and democratic societies, and the fact that China is neither presents us with serious problems. We came up with a list of what we refer to as “China’s seven deadly sins,” which we present here. We’ll also serialize and post this list here on the AlwaysOn Network once this issue reaches readers, where we hope it will spark intelligent debate in the AlwaysOn community. We believe these legal, business, and cultural “sins” put China’s road to prosperity at great risk. We also think that any combination of these human, business, and societal violations could cause political upheaval from internet-empowered Chinese youth.
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